A recent collection of papers, edited by Maire Ní Bhrolcháin (1993a) of Southampton University, and published by HMSO, has put the spotlight on recent fertility trends in Britain. Several of the papers considered new ways of analysing fertility, for example challenging the established view that cohort measures of fertility are intrinsically superior to period measures (Ní Bhrolcháin 1993b).
Another looked at the advantages of constructing birth rates based upon data by birth-order rather than by age of mother (Murphy and Berrington 1993) - an approach which suggests that birth rates may be "in reality" slightly higher than we are led to expect from conventional measures. The Stopes Research Fund of the Galton Institute is currently supporting research on the comparative application of such methods to several European countries. This short article summarises a paper which considered Britain’s fertility with that of its European neighbours.
In comparing the reproductive behaviour of the British population with that of the rest of Europe, certain key questions arise. Are we an indistinguishable part of a convergent or converging European whole, or do we preserve, or even develop, some distinguishing features of our own? This question is not just of academic interest. If present fertility differentials persist then the level of national representation in the EC institutions, for example, may eventually be called into question; with France and the UK, and Sweden if it joins, eventually gaining at the expense of Italy and Germany.
Britain shares many features in common with the rest of Western Europe: fertility below the replacement level, late childbearing with births over age 30 becoming more common.
Nonetheless, in comparison with the rest of Western Europe Britain emerges with a rather distinctive pattern of fertility. Conventional summary measures of period fertility such as the TFR put Britain (1.8) near the top of the league of major European countries (average under 1.7) (Figure 1). It is one of the few European countries not facing population decline in the medium term. This contrasts with a position fifteen or more years ago when Britain’s fertility was closer to the European average. Britain’s fertility has changed less than that of continental countries since the 1970s. The birth rate of many European countries has collapsed around us, leaving Britain, with France, Norway and Finland and Sweden, as Europe’s leaders in terms of fertility rates.
Although in Britain there has been a marked increase in births to mothers aged over 30, the proportion of such births remains modest compared with the continental average. In Britain mean age at first marriage, simply measured, is the lowest in Western Europe except for Belgium, Greece and Portugal (Figure 2). Mean age at first birth and for all births are less easy to compare because many countries only publish data relating to marital births within marriage. Britain appears to have a relatively late age at first birth when the 69% of births within marriage are considered, but has considerably younger mean age at birth compared with those countries (Netherlands, West Germany) which publish statistics on all births whether inside or outside marriage. Britain leads Western Europe in teenage birth rates.
Births outside marriage are among the highest in Europe, ranking after Sweden and Denmark alongside Norway and France at about 30% of all births (Figure 3). Much of the increase has occurred within cohabiting unions. Cohabitation is common compared with many European countries. But other data suggests that such unions elsewhere are considerably less stable than marital unions. Taken together with the fact that Britain’s divorce rates are also the highest in western Europe, about 25% of Britain’s children will either be brought up for part of their lives by one parent or experience a parent not their own.
Desired fertility is about the European average, with a strong concentration on a 2-child family. This matches the actual distribution of family size and the somewhat more conservative attitudes revealed in England and Wales by surveys covering a wide range of values and preferences. There may also be a substantial unwanted component in British fertility, despite the general use of contraception. Near-universal contraception has not eliminated unwanted or unplanned births from the rest of Europe either, but some measures suggest that the proportion of such births in Britain is comparatively high.
Britain itself, as distinct from the UK, is in geographical terms very homogeneous with respect to fertility, showing little of the pronounced regional differences found in most continental countries. In Northern Ireland, however, the UK has one of the highest fertility regions of Europe.
We are still a long way from an adequate explanation of fertility trends and patterns even within individual countries, let alone understanding the reasons behind the differences in fertility between countries and their regions. It also seems that Britain compares rather unfavourably with the rest of Europe in a number of fertility indicators which suggest that a high proportion of births in Britain will be born into unfavourable material and social circumstances by virtue of the youth or single parent status of the mother. The Galton Institute may wish to take an interest in these developments.
David Coleman.
References:
Coleman, D.A. (1993) "Britain in Europe: international and regional comparisons of fertility levels and trends". in Bhrolcháin, M. (Ed. 1993), New Perspectives on Fertility in Britain: Studies on Medical and Population Subjects No 53, London: HMSO pp 67 - 92.
Murphy, M., & Berrington, A. (1992). Constructing period parity progression ratios from household survey data". In M. Bhrolcháin, (Ed.), New Perspectives on Fertility in Britain London: HMSO pp 17 - 33.
Ní Bhrolcháin, M. (Ed. 1993a) New Perspectives on Fertility in Britain: Studies on Medical and Population Subjects No 53, London: HMSO.
Ní Bhrolcháin, M. (1993b) ‘Period paramount? a critique of the cohort approach to fertility’ in Ní Bhrolcháin, M. (Ed. 1993), New Perspectives on Fertility in Britain: Studies on Medical and Population Subjects No 53, London: HMSO pp 1 - 16.